Confidence remains in immediate and long term future of economy.
ANZ has released a report on Vietnam Consumer Confidence during September, which increased 1.6 points compared to August but only 0.3 points against September last year. The small gain was driven by increased optimism about the country’s overall economic prospects in the next year and over the next five years.
Commenting on the result, Mr. Glenn Maguire, ANZ Chief Economist of South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, said: “Vietnam continues to find itself in the remarkable stead of being the only Asian economy not recording negative import and export growth. It is strongly bucking the regional trade recession.”
However, dynamics within the Vietnamese economy will clearly not be immune to a weaker global trade environment and the September confidence survey may contain the first hints of caution among local consumers. The short-term assessment on personal finances may have been eroded by policy decisions to weaken the VND and widen the exchange rate band in August, measures that will make imports more expensive for the average Vietnamese household. However, over the medium term this is a prudent policy choice that will retain Vietnam’s export competitiveness and ensure continued insulation from the regional trade recession. Mr. Maguire said.
“We think a sharp erosion in confidence in Vietnam is highly unlikely,” he added. “Our expectation of resilience stems from Vietnam’s trade performance in the coming months, thanks to strong FDI inflows in recent years.”
ANZ-ROY MORGAN VIETNAM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
INDEX AND LOCAL GOLD PRICES