MoF estimate on revenue from crude oil higher than last year's.
State budget estimates for 2015 released recently by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) put budget revenues at VND911 trillion ($43.38 billion), an increase 16 per cent compare to 2014's estimate. Revenue from oil is to be VND93 trillion ($4.42 billion), against the VND85.2 trillion ($4.05 billion) estimated for 2014.
Budget Revenue Estimate Structure in 2015. Source: MoF
Budget Spending Estimate Structure in 2015. Source: MoF
Data released previously by the Ministry of Finance shows that oil revenues in January were nearly 13 per cent lower than in January 2014, at VND7 trillion ($330.18 million), with the price of Vietnam's crude being just $60 per barrel ($40 less than in the estimate).
Crude oil is trading in the range of $50-57 per barrel on the world market, and recent forecasts say the price bottom could be less than $50. Calculations by Vietnamese State agencies show that for every $1 decline in crude oil prices, budget revenues will suffer by VND1 trillion ($47.61 million).
In addition to crude oil, the budget estimate also puts domestic revenue at VND639 trillion ($30.42 billion), and revenues from exports and imports VND175 trillion ($8.33 billion), with VND4.5 trillion ($214.28 million) in aid, all of which are higher than last year. Adding VND10 trillion ($476.19 billion) from 2014, total revenues this year will increase by about VND921.1 trillion ($43.85 billion).
Meanwhile, total budget spending this year is expected to reach nearly VND1,150 trillion ($54.76 billion), with about VND150 trillion ($7.14 billion) being spent on repaying debt and aid (the lowest since 2012).
The State budget deficit will be 5 per cent of GDP, down 0.3 percentage points compared to 2014. By the end of the year public debt will equal 64 per cent of GDP.