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Crude oil to still add more to budget

Released at: 09:00, 14/02/2015

Crude oil to still add more to budget

MoF estimate on revenue from crude oil higher than last year's.

by Nguyen Hung

State budget estimates for 2015 released recently by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) put budget revenues at VND911 trillion ($43.38 billion), an increase 16 per cent compare to 2014's estimate. Revenue from oil is to be VND93 trillion ($4.42 billion), against the VND85.2 trillion ($4.05 billion) estimated for 2014.

Budget Revenue Estimate Structure in 2015. Source: MoF

Budget Spending Estimate Structure in 2015. Source: MoF

Data released previously by the Ministry of Finance shows that oil revenues in January were nearly 13 per cent lower than in January 2014, at VND7 trillion ($330.18 million), with the price of Vietnam's crude being just $60 per barrel ($40 less than in the estimate).

Crude oil is trading in the range of $50-57 per barrel on the world market, and recent forecasts say the price bottom could be less than $50. Calculations by Vietnamese State agencies show that for every $1 decline in crude oil prices, budget revenues will suffer by VND1 trillion ($47.61 million).

In addition to crude oil, the budget estimate also puts domestic revenue at VND639 trillion ($30.42 billion), and revenues from exports and imports VND175 trillion ($8.33 billion), with VND4.5 trillion ($214.28 million) in aid, all of which are higher than last year. Adding VND10 trillion ($476.19 billion) from 2014, total revenues this year will increase by about VND921.1 trillion ($43.85 billion).

Meanwhile, total budget spending this year is expected to reach nearly VND1,150 trillion ($54.76 billion), with about VND150 trillion ($7.14 billion) being spent on repaying debt and aid (the lowest since 2012).

The State budget deficit will be 5 per cent of GDP, down 0.3 percentage points compared to 2014. By the end of the year public debt will equal 64 per cent of GDP.

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