Vietcombank Securities predicts CPI to stay still or increase just 0.05 per cent.
After analyzing the market situation in August, the macro-economic report from Vietcombank Securities Limited Company (VCBS), a subsidiary of Vietcombank, forecast that CPI in September would not increase or only increase slightly, by about 0.05 per cent.
VCBS pointed out that although the CPI in September will be under pressure from seasonal factors such as the new school year, twin cuts to the petrol price totaling 10 per cent is likely to offset such factors.
It expects to see continued recovery in consumer demand and domestic investment demand, though neither will be significant. The FDI sector remains a bright point and a growth driver in the economy.
VCBS also forecast GDP in the remaining months of the year will be 6.3 per cent to 6.35 per cent, with an annual figure of around 6.4 per cent to 6.5 per cent. “The trade deficit will continue to increase gradually over the remaining months and is likely to be around $4 to $5 billion for the year,” it wrote.
The report said the decision to devalue the VND to deal with unexpected fluctuations in China may provide a degree of support to exports over the final months of the year. It will be difficult, however, to see major breakthroughs from the move as currencies in Vietnam’s key export markets, such as Europe and Japan, have also fallen significantly against the dollar.
Imports, meanwhile, will continue to increase to meet rising demand in production and consumption towards the end of the year, VCBS predicted.