ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence Index remains well above average for 2014.
ANZ has released the ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence Index for November, which edged up 1.2 points to 142.3 and remained above the 2014 average of 133.3. November’s gain was driven by higher confidence among respondents in their personal financial situation compared to a year ago and improved sentiment on buying major household items.
Thirty-four per cent of respondents said their families are “better off” financially than at this time last year, unchanged compared to last month, while 11 per cent said their families were “worse off” than at this time last year, down 5 percentage points (ppt).
Fifty-six per cent of respondents (down 1 ppt) expect their families to be “better off” financially this time next year, while 3 per cent (down 2 ppt) expect to be “worse off”.
Regarding the overall economy, 55 per cent (down 2 ppt) of respondents expect Vietnam to have “good times” financially during the next 12 months. Conversely, 9 per cent (down 1 ppt) expect “bad times”; the lowest recorded since last March.
Over the longer term, 59 per cent (down 5 ppt) of respondents expect Vietnam to have “good times” economically over the next five years. Meanwhile, a record low of 4 per cent (down 1 ppt) expect the country to have “bad times” economically.
Finally, 42 per cent (up 2 ppt) of respondents felt “now is a good time” to buy major household items, compared to 8 per cent (down 3 ppt) who felt “now is a bad time”. The latter represents the lowest value recorded for the indicator since November 2014.
“The Vietnamese economy has remained immune to a regional trade recession and the local consumer confidence is consistent with domestic sectors that are well insulated from the slowdown in trade growth regionally and internationally,” said Mr. Glenn Maguire, ANZ Chief Economist, South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific.
“The immunity and resilience of the Vietnamese economy has been highlighted by the PMI returning above the threshold 50 level in October and the general tone of macro-economic data remaining firm. Indeed, the improvement in both perceptions about personal finances over the next year and the increased readiness among households to purchase big-ticket household items suggest that domestic income conditions within the Vietnamese economy are improving, instead of deteriorating. Nonetheless, it was a surprise that longer-term confidence in the local economic outlook fell over the month. As the full details of the TPP continue to be revealed and the unambiguously strong medium-term benefits it is expected to bring to Vietnam become more evident, medium-term confidence in the Vietnamese economy should also rise,” he said.