ANZ-Roy Morgan research finds confidence falling in July.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence was down 4.5 percentage points to 138.6 percentage points in July. However, Vietnamese consumer confidence remains above its 2014 average of 133.3 percentage points and is 4.5 percentage points higher than in the same period last year, when it was 134.1 percentage points.
The fall in July is mainly due to reduced confidence in Vietnam’s economy over the next 12 months and the next five years. There were also fewer respondents who believe “now is a good time” to buy major household items.
In terms of personal finances, 34 per cent of respondents said their families are now “better off” financially than the same time last year, the lowest result recorded for this indicator since January. On the other hand, 21 per cent of respondents felt their families are “worse off” financially.
Sixty-three per cent of respondents expect their families to be “better off” financially this time in 2016, the highest result ever recorded for this indicator. At the same time, only 5 per cent of respondents expect to be “worse off” financially this time next year.
Fifty per cent of respondents expect Vietnam to have “good times” financially this time next year, the lowest result for this indicator since January. Meanwhile, 13 per cent expect “bad times” financially this time next year.
Over the longer term, 64 per cent of Vietnamese expect Vietnam to have “good times” economically over the next five years, while 7 per cent expect “bad times” economically.
Finally, 40 per cent of Vietnamese believe “now is a good time to buy” major household items, the lowest recorded for the indicator since December 2014, in contrast to 12 per cent who said “now is a bad time” to buy such items.
Commenting on the results, Mr. Glenn Maguire, Chief Economist of Asia-Pacific at ANZ, said that Vietnamese consumer confidence has come off its mid-year record high and continues to point to an economic recovery that is broadening and strengthening. The economy is becoming more balanced between the export-oriented sector and the domestic and household sector.
Moreover, the Vietnam General Confederation of Labor (VGLC) has proposed a 16-17 per cent increase in wages for 2016. If endorsed by the National Salary Council, the increase in the minimum wage will go a long way towards bolstering domestic demand and private consumption in what could be a more uncertain global backdrop. ANZ continues to remain optimistic about the strength and durability of the Vietnamese economic recovery, particularly the consumer components, as it looks into 2016, Mr. Maguire added.