National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting believes GDP growth for 2015 may well exceed target.
Vietnam’s GDP growth could reach 6.48 per cent for 2015, higher than the target of 6.2 per cent, according to the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting (NCIF) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment.
GDP is expected to improve dramatically because of a wide range of factors, such as lower prices, solidly-performing FDI enterprises, and higher demand in export markets. Among industries, construction and processing and manufacturing are predicted to be the main drivers of growth.
The service sector will also see some improvement, while agriculture, forestry and fisheries will face certain difficulties.
Regarding prices, the NICF predicted that the price of crude oil will rise and global economic growth for 2015 will be 3.5 per cent. Inflation in Vietnam for 2015 will be 1.7 per cent, it expects.
Positive signs in both the global economy and Vietnam’s economy are likely to see imports and exports rise. The NICF predicted that exports this year will be more than $165 billion and imports over $174 billion, for a trade deficit of around $8.77 billion.
Credit growth this year is targeted at 13 to 15 per cent against 12 to 14 per cent in 2014. With business and manufacturing experiencing problems, however, this could lead to an increase in bad debts and credit growth falling short of targets.
The NICF concluded that many socio-economic targets in 2015 are achievable, with the two key targets of GDP growth and CPI being better than expected.