HSBC Trade Forecast Vietnam Report puts real GDP growth at over 5% in decade to 2030.
HSBC believes the outlook for Vietnam remains very encouraging because of low wages and strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows over recent years, particularly into electronics, it wrote in its HSBC Trade Forecast Vietnam Report released on June 4.
Besides predicting real GDP to be sustained in the decade to 2030 at over 5 per cent, HSBC also said that clothing and apparel would remain the country’s top export for the foreseeable future. The sector was expected to contribute almost 20 per cent of projected growth in total merchandise exports in the decade to 2030.
“Vietnam has also built up a strong presence in the global market for telecommunications in recent years,” the report stated, and should therefore meet rising demand for consumer goods in emerging Asia. ICT equipment will be the second largest contributor to Vietnam’s export growth from 2015 to 2030, according to the report.
Both the export and import of electronics were predicted to grow by around 11 per cent from 2015 to 2030, with Vietnam running a small trade surplus in electronics and this can be expected to rise gradually over the period.
In 2014 mobile phones and associated items accounted for 16 per cent of Vietnam’s exports, while electronics, computers and components accounted for another 8 per cent, which saw the electronics sector account for a quarter of Vietnam’s total exports. Both sectors had risen in recent years.
Industrial machinery was forecast to be Vietnam’s largest import sector to 2030, contributing around a quarter of its import growth in the period. Textiles (wood and wooden products) and ICT equipment will also be important import sectors.