Report released yesterday puts growth at 6.1% to 6.2% this year and next.
Vietnam's growth is forecast at 6.1 to 6.2 per cent in 2015 and 2016, driven by exports and investment and possibly a mild recovery in household consumption and domestically-oriented sectors.
The predictions were contained a report released yesterday entitled "Making Growth More Inclusive for Sustainable Development", released by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP).
The report came to the 6.2 per cent figure because of recovery being seen in the country's economic sectors and stable prices continuing to benefit consumers and businesses. It also noted that inflation fell from double-digits in 2011 to just 4.1 per cent in 2014 and is expected to trend further downward to 2.5 per cent this year.
UNESCAP's figures are higher than the 6 per cent recorded last year but lower than the government's estimates for this year, according to Mr. Vo Tri Thanh, Deputy General Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM). "The government targets growth of more than 6.2 per cent this year and it seems likely it will be achieved given that it stood at 6.03 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter," he said.
Despite signs of economic recovery, he continued, Vietnam must also address a range of difficulties, especially in the export and tourism sectors. Agricultural exports are on the decline, putting pressure on the growth target of 10 per cent put forward for the year. Difficulties in the European and Russian economies, meanwhile, have affected tourist numbers to Vietnam.
In the medium-term, UNESCAP believes that the most critical matter is the ongoing restructuring of banks and State-owned enterprises and its impact on domestic private sector development.
The UNESCAP report focuses on making growth more inclusive for sustainable development. Experts said that although the growth and the changes in the economic development situation cited by UNESCAP are similar to those from the World Bank and other institutions, the former's research always focuses on sustainable growth issues.